In 1972, a team of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) conducted a study to determine when human society might collapse. They used computer models to analyze data on population growth, natural resource consumption, and energy usage. Their findings suggested that society could face a significant decline by the mid-21st century, specifically around the year 2040.
Initially, this study did not receive widespread acceptance and was even met with skepticism. However, subsequent research has supported its conclusions. In 2009, a study published in American Scientist found that the original model’s predictions remained accurate, stating that the results were “almost exactly on course some 35 years later in 2008.” The researchers emphasized the importance of recognizing that these predictions had not been invalidated and appeared to be on target.
Further affirmation came in 2021 when Dutch sustainability researcher Gaya Herrington revisited the 1972 study. Her analysis confirmed that the data aligned with the earlier predictions, indicating that economic growth could halt by the end of the 2020s, leading to a societal collapse around 2040. Despite these findings, Herrington offered a glimmer of hope, suggesting that with proactive innovation in business practices, governmental policies, and civil society initiatives, it is possible to steer away from the projected collapse.
These studies collectively highlight the potential challenges humanity may face if current consumption and growth patterns continue unchecked. They underscore the urgency for sustainable practices and systemic changes to avert the predicted societal decline.